......Synopses and trading ideas......
Besides reinforcing in my mind's eye what I already know works well
I use this page to document new trade ideas and other things I find interesting.
05/11/2018...News and market action
****Closing a week of "good" news****
3 American citizens released by North Korea and 5 major terrorist leaders captured in Syria
****The "bad" news on the TA front****
Stochastic is over-bought and candles look very much like just before last month's reversal
5/18/2018...Last week's reversal speculation hasn't happened -- instead, a new possibility ...
Don't let a good day turn against you. Be alert, the world needs more lerts.
Quit while you're ahead, hit 'em and run, know when to say when...
Link to current day's trades Apr 2018
Trading can be a constant battle between your greed and yourself...
04/22/2018... MACD and LSMA Indicator Combinations
04/09/2018...Multiple applications of the Least Square MA
Below - very similar to the template above except that 2 LSMA lines and LSMA histogram
are with price...the study contains the MACD+EMAs with a LSMA applied to STO (hidden)
04/03/2018...Added an LSMA of STO%D
In the price pane there is a blue "Step Line" LSMA (parabolic) along with MACDh and its Signal line.
The red--lime line in the study pane is an 8 period Least Square Moving Average (linear)
which is based on the input from the yellow Stochastic TA %D...
The white dots print when the LSMA first turns from down to up.
04/03/2018...MACD with Least Square Moving Ave
The light blue histo in the price pane is a 6 period LSMA of the darker blue MACD histo
The LSMA can also be displayed as a Line, a Step Line or a histogram...
I'm experimenting with those display types along with other periods
03/29/2018... MacH vs Awesome Oscillator
Price OHLC with MACD histogram (12,9,26) over a combined study including
Stochastic slowD (5,3,3), MACD EMAs (12,9,26) and Awesome Oscillator (5,10) histogram.
03/11/2018...2 TRIXh w Price
03/09/2018... Divergence types
In depth descriptions are on pages 2, 2a and 2b in the table of contents on the right...
02/22/2018 -- Keltner channels (2.1 deviations)
Left chart - Keltners+center band...Right - Keltners+MACD histogram
and MACD Histogram plus MACD Signal line
Also added horizontal level lines, aligned with the MACD scale on the right
Slightly longer term 1 study with Keltner channels
01/24/2018 -- Some T-Mode chart template modifications
Single study -- MACD with price over Stochastic
1 study -- Stochastic over MACD
01/13/2018 -- impressive start for the new year
01/02/2018 -- odd trading ranges today...
11/11/2017...Testing the Acceleration/Deceleration Oscillator & AC HOOK
Perhaps good for taking multiple, very small scalps using a Buy-Stop above the bar
Here's a combo of the STO, MACD EMAs and APO
11/3/2017...New Multi-study Templates
Eliminates the scales on the left hand side...
NOTE - These two templates DO NOT save properly after shut-down//restart
or when loading either one to an open chart...
(the TRIX remains in the Active Indicators property box but it reverts to just a line on the chart)
In order to get TRIX added without the LH scale, you need to right click the pane that you want
it shown in, select "Indicators" and then uncheck the "Create New Area" box.
10/14/2017...Time Based vs Tick Based
These comparisons illustrate why I prefer tick charts for viewing very
short term price action. It's difficult to correlate the different chart types...
09/26/2017...Add'l T-Mode template
TRIX histogram in with price over Stochastic, with dual MACD's and EMA-MAC triangles
0922/2017...Current T-Mode template variations
The right hand one may hi-lite the MT Sling pattern better...
(two of them printed between 14:00 and 14:01)
09/20/2017...Revisiting the 1-2 Punch combo
Stochastic TA (5,4,3) Hooks up and then the WMA (4) of the MACD Main EMA turns up
Note the MACD Histo slope is also positive...the MACD Signal EMA is slower
but turns positive just a few bars later...I consider the MACD Signal to indicate TREND
1 to get ready and 2 for the dough...
08/30/2017...A Trend Following template set
The study contains a filled MACD histogram (Area not Columns)
4 period WMAs are applied to the MACD EMAs along with Coloring and Show Cases.
White or red candles/bars are 'normal' up/down colors
The lime candlesticks and/or OHLC bars' are colorized via the WmaMac EMA slope.
Stochastic %D is placed in with price for a "Trigger" signal.
Same chart, candlesticks or OHLC
08/22/2017...I love the look of divergences in the morning...
...Especially when they keep on giving
8/29/2017 -- Another early morning divergence that kept giving
07/30/2017...New Entry chart templates
Experimenting with placing the Stochastic (5,4,3) and WMA (5 period) of
the main MACD EMA (12,9,26) in with price.
Also added add'l templates of STO with MACWMA lines+dots
07/24/2017... The 1-2 punch REVERSAL set
Signals from the oversold stochastic HOOK combined with the WMA-MAC-EMA turning UP
Another example a little later in the afternoon:
and the 55 tick chart from above that also shows a "failed" entry just minutes before:
Another template style for the One-Two Punch:
07/18/2017...Reacting to bottom reversals
First the stochastic hints then the MACD EMAs confirms...
As simple as it gets...it does require combining "feel" with the entry decisions.
Have more confidence in the simple 1st-the-STO and the-MAC-EMAs-to-confirm pattern
when you see your old friend DIVergence too...
07/05/2017...Brach Zone pull backs
A way to anticipate reversals that may occur...IE: a "guess" for order entry placement.
Sometimes works well, especially if the higher time frames suggest trend reversal clues...
This occurred over a one hour period
A different set of examples showing the BZ on the lower TFs.
Note the Reversal 2B and the add'l entry signals before each of the retraces ...
06/29/2017...P/A + Indicators
and reviving TRIX + STO in the study.
6/23/2017...DOM, Quotes and T&S
Combined ApexTrader and Medved Trader or w/o Medved
06/21/2017... DIVergent Stochastic Re-Hook
06/19/2017...Reviving the BLINE
Also moving the MACD histogram in with price leaving it's EMAs in the study pane with Stochastic %D.
This allows for a smaller, less busy study pane and also enlarges the price pane.
But I've been seeing various combinations of this stuff for so long that it IS simple to me...
Basically I use trend lines, price action patterns and indicator patterns.
AND multiple time frames help to confirm or clarify the repeating patterns of all the stuff I use.
06/12/2017...The old two step pattern
Two drives down before reversing and going up
30T on left...
Positives -- Potential for a 2B with the STO about to hook up ... ... ... ...
Negatives -- down sloping MACD EMAs and NO histo divergences
45T on right...
Positives -- Potential 2B, STO Hook and is divergent, slight Histo DIV
Negatives -- down sloping MACD EMAs ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
Below -- another day, another two step pattern set
05/25/2017...Be ready to abandon patterns...
Don't lock yourself into a position.
AND see what happened afterwards...
05/19/2017...MT for trend - STO for when
A nice reversal:
05/16/2017...Waiting for better signals to Enter
These two sets show why you are better off waiting for better signals.
The 1st set shows an entry with a "marginal" signal -- Stochastic Hook
This set shows better signals that followed afterwards -- MT SLING
05/09/2017...Using multiple time frames
Very often I use all three for spotting signals for entries...T-Mode entry charts (left 2)
and trade results (right)...also good for documentation and for later review.
But at other times, signals don't fail...
These next charts show what happened after getting stopped out on the trade shown above
(see the horizontal arrow on the right hand chart)
Price went on to form a DIVergent 2B bottom with an MT SLING as the entry signal
(see the vertical arrow)
A downtrend reversed by a divergent 2B, then a Trend line break followed
by a TLB Re-Test (MOF) and then a MAC Trend Slingshot
05/03/2017...5 Wave ascending triangle
... bottoming reversal pattern was pre-announced by the histogram divergences
propelled up by the MAC Trend Slingshots while suggesting
an initial target @20856 (the session open price).
05/02/2017...Time and Tick
Same time period, very different look.
5/01/2017...Breakout then a Flag on a pole
Long term pattern and short term
04/27/2017...Price Bar & Candle color themes
30T+60T 60T+90T Lower monitors
Good signals sometime FAIL to precede good reversals -- using Buy-Stops
can often keep you out when signals fail...tho you gotta cancel them...
04/21/2017...An explanation of the Indicators I use
Most charts have price with a TRIX histogram over a study combining MACD & Stochastic.
I also apply Show Case 'Paintbars' and Coloring tools.
The dual MACD histos allow better control of the Signal/EMA lines.
They stay within the study pane now....Also trying out price-line charts
04/07/2017 ... Time on my hands ...
but it's nice to have options for the ol' layout and mix it up here 'n there
4/07/2017 ... Bombs away ! is apparently bullish
4/05/2017... A TIGER!...a f'n tiger
I forgot all about the FED minutes release today.
And here I thought what the FED would say was old news...
Remember the cook's rant "Never get out of the boat"... He ended up losing his head.
NEVER forget the FED.
03/27/2017...Trying to set up a bottom
03/23/2017...Trying a new "trigger" for T-Mode charts
03/20/2017...Zeroing in across time frames
Reading a 3 month daily, 2 hr-5 session, 1hr-2 session and the current session
03/18/2017...The Charting Arts
Examples of the things that can be done with great software...
03/16/017...The ol' 2-step...
03/15/2017...Market Pace and Time of day
In general, the markets are most active between 9:30 and 10:00 AM. The pace of market activity
varies greatly throughout any trading session. I've touched on this subject before...
It's explained somewhat more in-depth on Table of Contents page 7.
I contend that price action is price action, no matter when you decide to place your trades.
Pattern relationships between price and indicators remain the same regardless of the time of day.
Market pace determines how much time passes before patterns complete. The in-and-out trade below
would only take about 3 minutes during very active market Times.
03/07/2017...Different TF can make different Signals
Even minor time frame changes can show you stuff...
03/03/2017...Time Frames and Indicator Relationships
You have to really study the minutia to see the subtle differences.
02/20/2017...Different software will print different charts
Comparing the ApexTrader and Medved Trader charting software rendering reveals
subtle differences that are common to all software programs. These two charts are set up very similarly
but it is difficult to get them to match exactly even though they are using the same data feed.
I like the look of the timing curves produced by Apex's Stochastic (TA) but am unable to replicate
the EXACT same shapes and turns by manipulating Medved's fast or slow stochastic indicators.
Another issue I'll have to get used to is the differences between the tick-per-bar settings.
Apex's 40 tick chart is approximately equal to Medved's 13 to 16 tick chart...
02/16/2017...Like shooting ducks in a barrel
Simple as 1-2-3, easy as A-B-C
Perfect pennant on a pole - limit entry at lower trend line (@ 5)
or a buy-stop at upper trend line for the breakout.
Another look - another trade
01/25/2017...DIV REVERSAL - With & W/O annotations
01/17/2016...Cluster WAG Entries
Luck can have something to do with it
12/18/2016...Playing with indicators
Differing indicators can be manipulated to show very similar results...
Here I'm comparing a couple of TRIX EMAs with a standard MACD.
This signal is slightly slower to print than the TRIXh Slope (gray histo) and the
TRIXh BLINE (white dots on TRIX histo). The STO (yellow line) hooks up at about the same time
while the TRIX Signal line (fuchsia+aqua) and the MACD Signal line (red+lime)
coloring print just afterwards.
12/02/2016 MAC-Trend and TRIX-Trend
Almost identical turns are high-lighted on the EMAs
11/10/2016...chart set up
11/05/2016...Variations on the BLINE theme...
- - -Trend indicators- - -
The MACD Signal EMA tuning positive and TRIX histogram sloping up.
11/01/2016...Back to the BLINE
I'm still testing the BLINE ...It's based on the TRIX indicator which is set as a histogram.
I've applied the formula to show on the histogram bars and on the price bars.
Variations of BLINE indicators on Candle and OHLC charts
10/20/2016...Playing with Painted bars
Paint-bar tests - These chart experiments have the normally white price OHLC bars change to
lime when-ever the MACD Signal EMA is sloping up.
They then get colored red when-ever the stochastic %D gets highly over-bought and begins to drop.
I am not using these paint-bar colorings except to get a feel for how they work, perhaps
for finding other possible variations should they seem helpful for reading Price Action.
Been noticing a lot of these 3Rs of late...roughly 50% retrace for good re-entries.
09/28/2016...Testing a new layout
Overlaying the smaller sized chart over a larger on the same monitor gives a unique perspective.
These snapshots show the set up across my lower three screens.
The arrow placement is approximately at the same spot across the 6 charts.
T-Mode screen - M4
09/22/2016... 4a....BLINE trade Pattern ...
I added a new page explaining how to use it, it's draw backs and it's usefulness.
09/20/2016...The BLINE...6 for 6
Hard to believe you can scalp bits and pieces using signals from a 30 minute chart!
Six consecutive winning BLINE signals with a little help from your friends (stochastic).
(Slightly less than 3 complete sessions)
5 out of 7 winners on the 15 minute chart aint too shabby either!
(Slightly more than a full session)
09/16/2016...Some new Templates
Left - MACD histogram with price, MACD EMAs with Stochastic
Center - MACD histogram with price, TRIX EMAs & histogram with Stochastic
Right - TRIX histogram with price, MACD with Stochastic
09/06/2016...Still experimenting with my BLINE indicator
Seems it can be useful on longer term charts.
Very often MT and MAC histo will be negative or not displaying divergences
to be of much use for getting a heads up on potential reversal areas.
BLINE and stochastic signals are quicker to print.
I added the BLINE to my LT 'spotter' charts and removed them from my trade charts.
09/08/2016...+$250 per contract
BLINE signals on a longer term tick chart along with my other
'standard' old reliable signals
The BLINE prints too often with too many false prints as you zero down the time frame.
This was epecially noticeable on my trade-mode tick charts but happens even on the 1 and 3 minute.
09/03/2016...Wyckoff Power Charting
From StockCharts blogs by Bruce Fraser...his explainations of
Wyckoff's market action are very similar to how I view price Action...
09/01/2016...Back to basics...KISS
Time frames, Divergence and MT SLINGs
The old 2 step to profits...
Step 1) Test the market while watching multiple time frames
Step 2) Wait for confirming signals across the LT and ST
Pull backs...another basic entry technique using rising MACD EMAs...
8/19/2016...Back to basics...KISS
Trend Line breaks, Divergence, Mac Trend, Slingshot and multiple Time Frames
I've shelved my BLINE idea for now...
It's not as reliable a signal generator as it first seemed to be - too many 'false' signals...
08/07/2016 Sunday night..."Slow Motion" markets
...P/A is P/A regardless of when you trade...It pays to trade the pre-market...
It may test your patience but you if you can keep your attention sharp it's sort of like
the markets go into "slow-motion"...This one took over a half hour in-and-out...
If this trade was put on during the MMO it would have been over in 4 minutes or less.
08/07/2016...Latest BLINE templates
The indicator is working well on Tick or Time based charts.
Like all indicators you still need to use your judgement when acting on its signals.
Here's another idea for getting some help spotting good SLINGs or STO Hooks
using TRIX Trend in instead of MAC Trend.
It uses an EMA applied to the TRIX 5 period line which is already a combination of EMAs...
Can't get the Bline indicator to work as I had hoped it would work...
the Show Case indicators won't update properly on the stochastic line.
Added another 2 templates with much slower stochastic indicators. Testing to see if they
can be helpful for spotting MT SLING patterns or if they are too much added clutter.
Borrowed "Bline" from Buffy of daCharts.com (but not her parameters).
07/26/2016...Hunting for REVERSALS
(Apart from the 2xD earlier on the 30T, no particularly 'good' signals were showing when I snapped the picture)
07/24/2016...MT SLINGs "Late to the party" continuations
I'll be tracking this idea...perhaps it'll prove to be a way to cut down on stop-outs when anticipating moves
yet still enable participation in the price explosions provided by good MT SLINGs.
07/20/2016...Reversal vs Consolidation patterns
so always be looking for confirming signals...
But also be aware that a bigger consolidation pattern can go either way
and can change bullishness into bearishness.
07/14/2016...More MAC Trend Slingshot ideas
Relative to the "failure" rates of stand alone Slingshots vs MT Slingshots,
those that form with a horizontal or up-sloping MAC Trend are the better trades to take
The triangle is defined by the doji star top on Monday July 4th, followed by a wide range sell-off Tuesday
and a long tailed hammer reversal on Wednesday...
To top it all off, yesterday's wide range doji formed a nice indecisive diamond pattern...
With all those contradictory bullish-bearish clues it's No wonder the over night is up!!!
07/01/2016...Use multiple TF's to advantage
06/18/2016...TLB and Late-to-the-Party
The 1st one uses a P/A event for the entry, the 2nd uses an indicator Signal for the entry.
and to limit over-trading....
Here are some of the automatic 'annotations' that can be added via the software.
06/03/2016...What goes down must go back up
Chasing the reasons WHY is silly...
06/01/2016 MAC Trend or TRIX Trend
A standard 12/9/26 MACD indicator is in with price... in the study, TRIX indicator lines use 9 and 10 periods...the histogram is a 5 period
05/17/2016...Signals (early in the new session)
MAC Trend (MACD EMAs) was strong on both time frames.
Longer term Time based charts can be used just as effectively as
shorter term tick based charts for spotting good opportunities...
04/29/2016...Perspectives for Trading Charts
04/28/2016...Negative MT SLING pattern
04/22/2016...MOF Reversal pattern
MAC TREND SLING - another constantly recurring pattern.
The long term for perspective...note the subtle differences between the indicator positions on the two shorter term bar charts
Multiple Time Frames
Sometimes they print different signals, sometimes the same and sometimes only one time frame prints signals.
Waiting for additional signals to identify potential reversals before order placement improves the odds of a successful trade.
Note on the 35T chart that you would have needed to enter on a down sloping stochastic at E, anticipating a STO hook
04/13/2016... Judging Targets from Signals
What goes down must go up . . .
(by how much is always the conundrum)
MACD Trend SLING - - good for front running reversals
The 10 minute chart on the right is longer term than what I use but the idea is the same.
Look for the stochastic to start hooking up while the MACD EMA lines begin to slope upwards
(both should be nearer the bottom of the study)
The potential for breaking a down trend line and the longer lower candle shadows are
additional clues to add to the signals mix.
additional clues to add to the signals mix.
03/28/2016...Anticipate potential P/A patterns
but this is a good habit to develop for enhancing your feel for the trade.
03/23/2016...Utilize a Buy-Stop Entry Technique
Whether your entry rational is based on your
03/08/2016...Avoid Unforced Errors
03/04/2016...Trade what you see
for a good trade opportunity. On the left, the 4 minute chart had formed a pennant on a pole.
Place your order entry using the signals that may be firing on the lower time frame trade chart.
The two right hand charts document the possible results.
Otherwise known as the MACD EMA direction, it lags price action markedly when compared to the faster reactions
of the TRIX and MACD histograms. Even so it can be a good entry signal and it helps you stay in a position once taken.
02/23/2016...ENTRY SIGNAL hierarchy
OR IS IT A HOOKER'S PAYDAY?
EVERYDAY IS PAYDAY...
Whether it's Divergence, MT Slings, 2B's or all of them combined,
02/22/2016...1 Gain pays for 2 StopsIn the long term, discretionary trading is all about the numbers...
What's your total trading Win/Loss ratio? Whats your average Ticks Won vs Ticks Lost per trade? etc, etc, etc
Ignoring your statistics will lead you to ruin.
02/21/2016...Nice longer term 2B
02/18/2016...Waiting can Pay
Often the higher time frames will cause you re-think a trade...for much better results.
In this case, instead of a $26 loss I made an $84 gain (after commissions)
The EMA lines are considered 'trend' following indicators...the histograms can be used as signal generating oscillators
Having the histos in with price makes divergences very apparent. Sometimes the MAC gives better signals, sometimes the TRIX.
02/12/2016...Keep it Simple
02/10/2016...2B DragonsI really like the pattern for calling reversals.
Used for long term or short term Price Action projections...
02/01/2016...P/A and Indicator Signals
01/30/2016...Muliple market MAC TREND Signals
01/28/2016...You must be IN to WIN
01/25/2016...Price Action PACE
Differences can be especially noticeable when market activity or PACE increases :
Price bars often lengthen on TIME based charts as activity increases...but not always!
Time based charts may not reflect rising activity levels...
The rate that new bars print and the number of bars that print always increase
with TICK based charts whenever PACE rises.
are displayed on the layout. All the yellow and lime text annotations were added afterwards using MS Paint.
01/18/2016...Bits and Pieces at a time
01/07/2016...TIME vs TICK based charts
12/29/2015...WMA-MACD as a Signal
The other is 4 period WMA in the study pane (the white line) which is applied to the faster MACD EMA ...
The red and lime line is the standard Signal MACD EMA.
The 4 point white star prints whenever the faster WMA-MACD EMA turns from down to up.
12/21/2015...P/A, Signals and Time Frames
12/18/2015...Picture Perfect Pattern
2B Dragon Price Action Pattern with three indicator divergence Signals
12/14/2015...4 chart sets covering 2 hoursWhat goes down must go up...and vis-a-versa of course
12/08/2015...nice day in the RUT
12/04/2015...Time Frames and Signals
First comes the divergence signals suggesting a potential for a trend change...take an initial entry
12/03/2015...There will be days like this...
This one Coulda-Shoulda-Woulda returned $700
...Standard Operating Procedure...
11/24/2015...Time vs Tick charts
Viewing both can be useful for making entry decisions...
11/23/2015...Divergence, Signals and Time Frames
11/21/2015...Late to the Party trades...The center narrower study pane showcases what I call MAC Trend Turns. The faster MACD EMA prints
a white diamond and the Signal MACD EMA prints a smaller lime triangle when either begins to turn up...
They ARE NOT used for early initial entries - they lag too far behind faster reacting oscillators (STO & Histo).
I use them mainly to add to a well filled early entry position. But they can also be used when a good
initial entry point was 'missed'. They help with the decision whether to enter a late to the party order.
Relationships between P/A and signals are almost always different between chart time frames
but often there will be a 'heads up' on one that can alert you to look at the others for entry opportunities.
Those of you who are familiar with QT will be glad to know the Medveds are developing a replacement.
Medved Trader (MT) beta is available NOW for free. It already supports a variety of brokers
as well as independent vender's data feeds.
It is a beautiful program and incorporates much of what you'll recognize from QT.
You can expect the same level of features, support and dedication that Jerry and Mike always provided.
I have been trying it out using Yahoo Finance's free data feed...Track stocks, ETFs and Indices
(including back fill) - Daily & intraday...For futures, Yahoo provides the Continuous Contract symbols...
I'm still getting to know where everything is in MT and am enjoying many of the new features...
Price Action, Time Frames and Signals
Other zero-ing in comparisons
11/17/2015...MACD and Stochastic
Ever wonder why so many traders use these two indicators?
Because they work.
For short term scalping I like Tick based. They show much more at a glance...and earlier
(another new template, separate study pane for some of the Show Case indicators)
11/16/2015...AH trading is very SLOW
The same methods and signals can be used as those used during the major market hours.
Market action is pretty much the same, but it usually takes a lot more time per trade.
11/12/2015...Trade Management is KEY
11/12/2015... Remember the Classic Patterns
11/11/2015...Keep it Simple
11/09/2015...Price Action - patterns and signals
11/06/2015... Anticipating a reversal (at some point)
When you see potential reversal patterns or well defined signals on the longer term
"'Spotter" charts, the following methodology often saves you from getting some FILLs-and-STOPs...
Using Trailing Buy-Stop orders can keep you out if you misjudge the strength if the current down trend.
11/05/2015...The MT SLING pattern set up
On a very short term 22 tick chart shortly after the majors opened...
11/04/2015...Why I don't short...
My methodologies work best for taking longs.
▲ In general it takes more "effort" for prices to move up than down ▲
▲...It took over a half hour to move up and only 12 minutes to erase that effort...▲
10/30/2015...The never ending repetition of signals and patterns
10/30/2015 - More TEST trades over a 30 minute period
What was learned -- wait for confirming signals
10/29/2015...Test trades can help get your "FEEL" up to speed
Here's four examples from the pre-major market hours...they are back-to-back, spanning 40 minutes...
The left hand charts show the order entry, the right hand show the results.
What was learned -- decent signals and patterns were working but they did not produce great runs.
10/28/2015...FED minutes today...
10/27/2015...Price Oscillations are ALWAYS happening
Take out bits and pieces at a time
Price Oscillations are ALWAYS happening
10/19/2015...ya hast to take some chances...
Better to do so when it can't hurt you too much.
10/13/2015...MT aka MACD ema crossovers
In general, they are VERY reliable reversal signals on any time frame
10/10/2015...New MT templates...
Generally I find that having too many indicators on my charts usually obscures the price action.
But here's a couple of possibilities I'm going to try just for grins...I added the same MACD stuff to the price pane that were
already present in the study. I'll try them out on differing time frames and may end up running just the MT diamonds.
10/08/2015..."Late" to enter MT signals
Waiting for a reversal to consolidate very often offers good entry opportunities
10/07/2015...Knowing when to stand aside
Good price action can and does fail to produce reversals of substance...knowing when
they are failing is very difficult to determine at times....that's what stops are for...
10/06/2015...Time based vs Tick charting
10/02/2015...Simple but elegant
9/29/2015...Resurrecting the CCL bar coloring
Have previously used 3 Consecutive Closing Lows as an entry signal on T-Mode charts...
Now I'm trying out CCL on longer term "Spotter" charts.
Will see how well they work as a heads up...i.e. to start looking for entry signals on the T-Mode charts...
For the Red Neg Price candlesticks the condition formula used is open>close (includes the candle body)
The 3rd CCL formula is close<close&close<close&close<close (Lime outline and shadows)
For the instances where a 4th, 5th or more CCL candlestick print, the following formula was added:
close<close&close<close&close<close&close<close (white outline and shadows)
10/1/2015...CCL on the "Spotter" chart + signals on the T-Mode
9/29/2015...Remain Actively Involved
Be aware when price is taking too long to move in the direction you had anticipated...
...even when good signals continue to print...
Sometimes the 'better' entry patterns and signals will be present on the Shorter term...
Sometimes the 'better' entry patterns and signals will be present on the Longer term...
Shorter and Longer term
Here's an example using a standard out-of-the-box MACD indicator for scalping bits and pieces on a 3 minute chart...
9/17/2015...Same-'ol-same-'ol patterns and signals
09/15/2015...Some more rules to keep in mind
Don't-be-greedy - most trades won't run very much
Don't-be-greedy II ...but-but...NO BUTs about it
The next example may get you thinking you aught to loosen up your stops to take larger gains...
That is a type of Coulda-Shoulda-Woulda mind game to be avoided. On the other hand...
If you have already racked up some nice trades for the day
then letting your winners run can be a reasonable tactic.
9/14/2015... Short term signal rational
I 'normally' concentrate on longer term chart patterns and signals for spotting potential
reversal areas and then look to the shorter term charts for confirming rational for entries...
And although I always have several longer term minute based charts open, in this case the very short term
45 tick T-Mode chart was used by itself for making the decision to buy...
You can adjust time based and tick based charts to reflect the same price action...
Be aware that the indicators will show only similar partterns between the two types.
09/11/2015...Keep it simple
09/09/2015...It can be frustrating at times
But remember there will always be another trade
09/08/2015...Some of the charts I use:
09/04/2015...Price Action across markets
08/28/2015...Signals across time frames
Three indicator divergence signals (3xD)...below the trend line...on multiple time frames...for low risk entries
Testing this template as my T-Mode chart set up. Removed non-essentials such as Bid/Ask flags and Time/Price scales
in order to better focus on Price Action to Indicator relationships.
08/25/2015...Missed then filled
Keep watching even if you miss getting a fill - opportunities often come back-to-back...
08/18/2015 - Fast markets
Very difficult to get orders in at the level you'd like near the major market open.
08/17/2015 - Time frames and chart width
I am continually making adjustments in order to see what I need to see.
08/04/2015...Money on the floor
07/28/2015...2B Dragon bottom
07/27/2015...Money on the Floor
Combined with good signals, MOF's are very high percentage trades.
Note that the same signals often print simultaneously on different markets.
Every Price Action Reversal is not necessarily preceded by good signals...
Good signals do not automatically 'guarantee' a reversal is forth coming...
07/26/2015...Tick vs Time based charts
I watch both types but like tick charts for P/A patterns...
07/21/2015...Spotter chart - Reversals Rule
One the advantages of watching multiple time frame charts is the increased number of signals produced...
Some days a discretionary trader will key on the longer term charts looking for divergences or oversold conditions
and then look at the shorter term charts for additional entry rationalizations.
In the charts below, a long tail printed and STO was O/S on the 3 minute chart...Without the 3 min signals
the mediocre signals on the shorter term charts may not have been good enough to take for an entry...
07/17/2015...Combine different stuff - increase the odds
Own the tools that are presented throughout this blog for choosing when to go for it...
07/10/2015...Remember to keep it simple
...Patterns that Constantly Repeat...
07/02/2015...Same 'ol same 'ol
Use the stuff presented on this blog...day in, day out
Don't sweat missed entries
There will always be another trade opportunity.
06/19/2015...Signals and Time Frames
30 second...1 minute...3 minute
06/05/2015...Keep your winners by using Stops
06/02/2015...Don't sweat missed entries
There will always be another trade opportunity.
There are times that you do not or cannot see good signals in order to take an entry and sometimes you are late to react to signals.
Or you may decide to enter your order below the current price in an attempt to get a better fill on a retest...
5/29/2015...Get into training; to see Signals
Study Price Action; learn patterns and signals...train until they become second nature to you.
iHub message board ...
Often the higher time frame will give the better signals.
5/03/2015...The MAC d
Three Consecutive Closing Lows (CCL) and the 1st Monday of the month (FLO)
Use Price Action, Trend Lines, Indicator Signals and Multiple Time Frames to trade Patterns that continually repeat.
03/27/2014...Failed Reversal Signals
They usually let you know almost immediately...
03/25/2015...'Fair' or 'good' signals don't always precede winning trades.
03/18/2015 Tails as Tells
03/13/2015 ... Perspective
Reversed the TRIXh and MACD positions on the chart and combined other attributes
02/24/2015 ... 3 Consecutive Closing Lows
01/25/2015 ... 3 Consecutive Closing Lows Template
So far it seems to work fairly well to identify multiple consecutive lower closes.
01/26/2015 -- Incorporated 3 CCL signals into the existing 'trial' template...
01/27/2015 -- Removed the Show Case indicators...have not yet figured out how to stop
the 4th, 5th (etc) CCL shapes from appearing after the 3rd CCL bar.
(note - the yellow arrows and lines were added using MS Paint)
01/27/2015 -- CCL using Colorizing only, OHLC or HLC bars vs Candlesticks...
The 3rd CCL was colored RED and made thicker.
When using HLC bars, Positive and Negative bars are WHITE except for the Thicker, RED 3rd CCL bar...
The 4th CCL, 5th CCL etc. bars will be RED but will be a 'normal' thickness.
With Candlestick charts, the outlines are white...Positive candles are filled lime, Negative candles are filled BLACK to appear hollow.
The thicker 3rd CCL bar is outlined and filled with RED while 4th,5th etc. CCL bars are 'normal thickness.
They get outlined in red and are filled with BLACK...
I also have a similar template that will color the CCL bars that follow the 3rd CCL bar WHITE.
But when switching it to candlesticks it fills those bodies WHITE, making the chart a bit too confusing
because you have to remember that red, black and white bodied sticks ALL mean negative sticks...
Continuation Slingshot pattern...All of these signals confirm that the new up trend has indeed begun.
is still at the standard setting...Am still getting used to the new templates but like them so far...
I moved the MACD, MACDh and lime MT dots to the price pane and eliminated the WMA...
was cut down from 2 to 1 and given fatter negative bars so that it's slope
Hopefully the indicator will stay centered in the price pane so I won't have to constantly adjust its position.
The stochastic still has the fatter orange coloring when it's heavily oversold or overbought.
Will see if these templates turn out to make the charts too 'busy' ... (I may try adding 2 differing TRIX EMA lines too)...
At this first application I can clearly see the price action's double bottom AND
the divergences in the MACD, the MACDh, the STO and the TRIXh ...( 4xD ?)
Made some other minor changes and saved a 2nd g1 template...usually displayed as shown on the RH chart set.
The longer time frame chart has 'On Top' selected to cover the T-Mode column of the shorter TF.
Also saved a session chart template for candlesticks...
01/06/2014...3 consecutive down bars
Buy at the closing price of 2nd consecutive down bar once the 3rd consecutive down bar closes.
One reason it appeals to me is that it can keep you out
(Note on the 480 tick chart how the entry for the 3 consecutive lows (that became 4) would not have been filled...)
Pretty basic stuff here, lest we forget...
12/27/2014...2 vs 1 study
The same charts but slightly differing views of the divergent 2B
11/20/2014...One that got away
Missed getting a fill by less than a second...just half a click away...
Sometimes good signals fire but they are difficult to react to...In this case, anticipating a TLB by trailing a buy-stop down
above the TL and above the current bar is the best way to participate...
Could use a market order on the breakout but you never know where your entry will be filled...
7/15/2014 How Reversals are Made
turned out to be the 1st HL of the reversal.
"Late to the party entries"I find it interesting that trailing a buy-stop order down above the Minor Trend Line was a good way to anticipate
the potential reversal that the 3xD signals were broadcasting...Then trailing a buy-stop order down above the flattening WMA
after the new HH printed was a good way to anticipate the potential continuation of a new up trend
that the TLB-RETEST, the MT and MOF signals were broadcasting...
And even later than that, a trailing a buy-stop down, just above the Major TL also provided for a good entry...
Any or all three entry orders would have kept you out of a losing trade if the events/signals failed to produce...
7/10/2014 MACD TREND
I am liking how often the MT gives a heads up when other signals may not be present...
Trailing a buy-stop entry order above the WMA plays well...
7/7/2014 MACD TREND
A "Late to the party" entry using MACD TREND (MT) as the primary signal...
After a TLB and a new high prints, price often retraces back to re-test the area where it broke the trend line.
Use the WMA as it's flattening and/or 'curling' up as the starting point to trail a Buy-Stop order down.
The idea being : capture an up move if it comes yet stay out in case price just continues down.
This example had no great signals at or below the trend line break point but later, at the vertical green line
the MACD EMAs could easily be seen to be trending up...
As in the example above, note that a HL MOF will often form near the TLB Re-Test area...
Also, slingshots often develop with an MOF...but MOFs and slingshots are usually very difficult to see until after price
makes it's move...thus your chance to make a good entry may get missed...
That's when MT and the WMA can help you anticipate the forming of those other signals.
7/8/2014 Below: all the elements for a good " late to the party" trade, using MT and the WMA...
A shortened session today ahead of the 4th of July holiday but opportunities were still available.
Was watching multiple time frames but missed the signals shown on the shorter time frame.
A conflict in patterns at the end of yesterday's session...showing only on the RUT, not on the YM, ES or NQ.
Posted 8:30 AM
The H&S minimum move would erase all of yesterday's gain. The divergences have formed under the TL
which suggests a pop (but it may have already happened) ...
The STO has the potential for a SLING to help propel prices up if the trend line gets busted...
11:20 AM update - Price Action rules the movement...
Testing a different chart set up and a 'new' MACD TREND indicator
(red line at the bottom of the study when the MACD histo is below the zero line)
Too bad I wasn't watching when the signals were firing...missed out on +10 ticks per contract
It seems like I've seen this a thousand times but I'm still not ready to use it on it's own as a late entry signal...
(I missed the good 3xD that printed before the TLB)
Sometimes you eat the bear...
Early morning coincidences? Signals on three time frames = a good trade...
Why bother watching multiple charts of differing time frames ?
Nice pre-market Price Action Signals in the RUT
The past few days have been producing few 'good' trade opportunities with a sparse number of Signals printing
or printing Signals that FAIL ... This set up had everything going for it : a 2B with 3xD - histos, MACD EMAs and stochastic.
But it only ran up +7 from the TLB...With the YM, it "should" run at least 10 points.
Another advantage of using TICK charts vs time based...Signals are not dependent on time - only on P/A
Practice or TEST trades...Practice makes perfect
I need constant reminders to keep from over-trading which often results in poor choices
and too many stop-outs. The next two chart sets show some of the reasons why I take so many chart snapshots...
TEST Trade set A...This set illustrates why I should wait for good signals.
WAITING FOR GOOD SIGNALS = GOOD RESULTS
Practice trades...thoughts...this was in the early morning, just after the 7:00 AM reversal area...price had just come off
of a new session low...morning markets are much slower paced and seem to run further after signals fire.
This practice trade has given me the idea to increase my initial bracket target stop to 15 (from my normal 10)
for trading the YM in the pre-major market time zone...(leaving the stop loss at 4)
I continue to add notes on my charts to explain "How I do it".
Summaries of the "rationalizations" for entry that are added to charts helps to reinforce the good set ups to the subconscious...
Rationals are slightly different than reasons...IMO, reasons denote facts or universal truths...
But in the continually changing market environment, one day's rational may not work the next day.
(which is a good reason to use stop-loss orders)
To get a feel for the current Price Action, the reliability of the Signals that are firing off and the type of trades/entries
that may or may not be working, I find it helpful to do practice or TEST trades throughout the day...
Doing this is especially helpful during the pre-major-market open times, before making any actual trades.
Taking a snapshot and adding annotations is useful to reinforce in the mind's eye what I think is occurring.
This often will reduce the number of stop-outs I take...
TEST TRADES like the one in the snapshot above can tell you several things :
1)...Is price reacting to a TLB by shooting up without a re-test?
(perhaps using a market order to enter will work best)
2)..............Are the signals firing but then failing to follow thru?
(perhaps a trailing stop above the TL will keep you out, saving stop-losses)
3)................Is price re-testing the TLB area before taking off?
(perhaps a limit order at the TLB will yield the best results)
4)................Are signals firing but failing or are signals sparse?
(perhaps avoid initiating trades will work best, until the situation changes)
Signals work before the majors open...in the same manor they do after the majors open...
A Continuation Slingshot in an up trend...in and out in 5 minutes
90 tick trade chart
the histos were making lower lows which indicates to me that the pull back was OVER-DONE.
Note: The 'Exit' chart on the right hand side shows stochastic still rising...it looks like price would have continued up
allowing completion of the slingshot, which was mentioned as a rational for taking the trade in the first place...
I often raise my stop loss and/or my target brackets as price rises, in an attempt to squeeze more out of a trade...
BUT not always...this is just another example of Discretionary Trading.
The chart below shows what a 'perfect' continuation slingshot looks like after the fact...
120 tick chart
Below - the same 120 tick chart along with a longer term perspective of this continuation slingshot.
The green oval and vertical dots depict the entry area (see the 90 tick chart). The yellow square shows the exit...
Obviously a lot was left on the table. But I don't sweat about how much more I "coulda-shoulda-woulda" made.
There is always another trade
Price Action and Signals work before the majors open...in the same way they do after the majors open...
The action is usually just a little slower giving you more time to react.
This example was from around 8:00 AM in the morning.
Basic bread-and-butter signals incorporating Trend Lines and Price Action.
Another look at some old familiar patterns that have been working perfectly over the past few sessions...
A look at a couple of pre-market trades on multiple time frames...
You can see how much earlier the signals printed on the 30 tick vs. the 45 and 60 tick...
The trials and tribulations of a day trader... this series of charts shows what you are up against.
...not just the market but yourself...
MACD trend and Slingshots on 2 different time frames...watched this....
The markets are like a zoo
Experimenting with darker colors for the down histogram bars on both the TRIX and the Awe Osc.
In these examples ALL indicators printed divergence below the trend line...might start calling it 4xD.
With the Awe Osc and the RUT, don't think - REACT !
Price explosions on reversals...
that happened BEFORE the more "regular" 3xD divergence entry signals (MACDh+STO+MACD EMAs) highlighted by the blue vertical line.
Still gotta be nimble with the 3xD play but also notice the 'long' up bar and AO color change as well as its divergence...
Still developing 'feel' for the relationships between Price Action, MACDh and the Awesome Oscillator...
These are both pictures of the same 60 tick-per-bar chart - notice that less than 5 minutes transpired
between the bars marked A & B and the two reversals seen afterwards on the RH chart. In this case - it was
a very fast market when viewing a 60 tick chart...but going to 90t or 120t may not show an entry point or as good a risk/reward possibility.
Lunch time SIGNALs...both worked...one better than the other...
At this point I'm not trading this - want to see the pattern more times to build my confidence but it does show some promise...
This is a bit outside my 'norm' of using indicator divergences as reversal signals, yet it does have the element of trend line breaks to it...
Started testing the Awesome Oscillator today as a histogram in the price pane.
Its very 'smooth' and often works similarly as my more normal TRIX histo with price but there are some subtle differences.