A simple Swing-Trading strategy
Method is adapted from Larry Williams' work, a very successful speculator.
He also developed the Williams%R indicator. Some of his work revolved around
the seasonality of markets and his analysis suggested that certain times of the month
presented more favorable entries. He applied his work to the commodities markets.
My adaptations of Mr. Williams' strategies are applied to the e-mini futures
resulting in a success rate approaching 75% by following these two simple rules:
1...BUY the First and last Mondays of every month.
at the major market 9:30 AM open
at the major market 9:30 AM open
(Originally --add 10% of the previous session's range to Monday's 9:30 MMO as the entry level
Working on different FLO Entry Levels, Stops and Targets)
Working on different FLO Entry Levels, Stops and Targets)
2...BUY the Friday before OEX ..............
at the major market 4 PM close
There can be significant differences between entry prices dependent on the times
you choose to use for purchases. For the 1st & Last Mon you can use either
the session Open @ 6 PM Sunday or the major market Open @ 9:30 AM Monday.
Similarly, you have three different times to choose from for the OEX entry.
at the major market 4 PM close
There can be significant differences between entry prices dependent on the times
you choose to use for purchases. For the 1st & Last Mon you can use either
the session Open @ 6 PM Sunday or the major market Open @ 9:30 AM Monday.
Similarly, you have three different times to choose from for the OEX entry.
This is a purely mechanical approach, used for timing long entries. This approach does not consider fundamental factors, news or events. I've done no 'back-testing'
of results, no position draw-down studies or profit taking rules development.
of results, no position draw-down studies or profit taking rules development.
The following are the FLO trades results using the
e-mini futures as proxies for the major indices
Next FLO trades due in February 2020
02/24/2020 Last Monday - FEB
02/14/2020 Friday before OEX - FEB
02/03/2020 1st Monday - FEB
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01/27/2020 Last Monday - JAN
----------2O19----------
------- 12/25/2019 Last Monday in Nov -------
------- 12/13/2019 Friday before OEX in Dec -------
------- 12/02/2019 1st Monday in Dec -------
Strong showing for the previous two months...would have had to withstand
significant draw down with November's Last Monday Entry.
(I missed capturing trades for November's 1st and last Mondays)
------- 11/08/2019 Friday before OEX in Nov -------
------- 10/28/2019 Last Monday in Oct -------
All three entries for October ended up for the month...
------- 8/26/2019 Last Monday in Sept -------
Missed capturing this entry
------- 9/02/2019 1st Monday in Sep -------
Labor Day -- 1/2 session
------- 8/26/2019 Last Monday in August -------
------- 8/16/2019 Friday B4 OEX in August -------
...missed capturing this entry...
------- 8/05/2019 1st Monday in August -------
------- 7/29/2019 Last Monday in July -------
------- 7/12/2019 Friday before OEX in June -------
--------7/1/2019 1st Monday in July-------
-------- 6/24/2019 Last Monday in June --------
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6/24/2019 OEX Update
Nice entry with very little draw down
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-------- 6/3/2019 1st Monday in June --------
Posted as a one week update on Sunday 6/9/2019
Turns out last Monday was an excellent entry with very little draw-down
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05/28/2019 Update for the Last Monday in May
Draw down this week was brutal ... again
-------- 5/27/2019 Last Monday in May --------
★☆★Memorial Day★☆★
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05/19/2019 Update for the Friday Before OEX
The draw down was brutal...All ended the week below entry levels
would mitigate the apparent large draw downs (and lower any gains).
Swinging one contract could still bring good returns...
(the micros are about 10% the size of the regular futs)
-------- 05/10/2019 Friday Before OEX --------
Will you look at them long tails ! Arrrg - China, China, China
----------05/06/2019 1st Monday in May --------
Forgot to post this last week...Whole lot of draw down, likely got stopped out...
05/03/2019 Update for the Last Monday in April
Whole lot of draw down had to be tolerated but closed the week positive
--------- 04/29/2019 Last Monday in April---------
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Update as of 04/19/2019 for the Friday B4 OEX
Shortened week for Good Friday...mixed results on the dailies
-------- 04/12/2019 Friday Before OEX --------
A buy in at a top?
Update as of 04/05/2019 for the 1st Monday in Apr trade.
Excellent Entries -- nothing but up this week and very little draw down.
▼------------------------------------------------------▼
******** 04/01/2019 1st Monday in April ********
...Posting this a week late (coulda sworn I did this last Monday)
▼------------------------------------------------------▼
Update as of 03/29/2019 for the Last Monday in Mar trade
The YM chart shows entry levels - add 10% of Friday's range to Friday's close
ES, NQ and RTY charts show entry levels - add 10% of Friday's range to the open
03/25/2019 Update on rule changes and today's entries
Still thinking about rules for entry level, limiting the draw down and picking adequate targets.
Might go back to the original 10% rule...It seems as if a lot of draw down is just the way it is...
▼------------------------------------------------------▼
******** 03/25/2019 Last Monday in March ********
03/23/2019 -- I'm modifying the 10% rule for 1st & Last Monday FLO Trade entries:
Take 10% of Friday"s range and add that to Friday's CLOSE...
Use those levels for placing BUY-STOP orders for the upcoming sessions.
Entry levels are marked on the charts ahead of the session opening on Sunday nights.
Also going to be tracking the Russell 2000 from here on...
▼------------------------------------------------------▼
Update as of 03/15/2019 for the Friday B4 OEX in Mar trade
Good entries and solid week for the NQ and ES
Substantial draw-down would have made it difficult to hold the YM...
******** 03/08/2019 Friday B4 OEX in March ********
Closed with long tailed Harami Hammers
▼------------------------------------------------------▼
Update 3/07/19 for the 1st Monday of Mar Trades
The 10% rule for entry level kept you out of the YM & ES
but the NQ would have filled then stopped out
******** 02/25/2019 Last Monday in February ********
Posted 3/01/2019 (a week after entry date)
Sideways movement after the entries with minimal drawdown...
▼------------------------------------------------------▼
Update as of 02/15/2019 for the Friday B4 OEX in Jan trade
6 consecutive winning FLO trade entries
Update as of 02/08/2019 for the 1st Monday in Feb trade
Good gains the day after entering but would have given it back if held
(see the chart above)
******** 02/04/2019 1st Monday in February ********
Good entries with little draw down on the YM & NQ but
likely stopped out on the ES
▼------------------------------------------------------▼
Update as of 01/18/2019 for the Friday B4 OEX in Jan trade
Another set of FLO trades catching good moves
▼------------------------------------------------------▼
Update as of 01/18/2019 for the Friday B4 OEX in Jan trade
FLO trades caught good moves since last month's bottom
******** 01/11/2019 Friday B4 OEX in January ********
▼------------------------------------------------------▼
Update as of 01/11/2019 for the 1st Monday in Jan trade
Solid gains one week after entering
******** 01/07/2019 1st Monday in January ********
Link to FLO Trades 2018
